India appeared to have wrested control of the second Test against Sri Lanka after a late burst of wickets, but rain could yet play a major role in determining the outcome of the Test and, in turn, India’s WTC campaign.Sri Lanka were 218 for 6 in their second innings when play was called off early, with Sonal Dinusha and Keshara Nuwantha unbeaten at the crease. The hosts had earlier mounted a spirited fightback through Pasindu Sooriyabandara and Kusal Mendis, raising the prospect of a draw if further rain disrupts the final day.Such an outcome could hurt India’s chances of making the WTC final.India are currently fifth in the WTC standings with a points percentage of 53.33. A victory over Sri Lanka would lift Shubman Gill‘s side to fourth place following Bangladesh’s heavy defeat to Australia. A draw, however, would leave India in fifth place with their PCT slipping to 51.52.The bigger concern is the shrinking margin for error in the remainder of the cycle.India will have seven Tests left after this match, including a two-Test tour of New Zealand in November before a five-Test home series against Australia next year. Having already lost four of their 10 Tests in the current cycle, India can ill afford many more setbacks.If India win seven of their remaining eight Tests, including this match, they can finish with a PCT of 68.52. But six wins and two defeats would leave them at 62.96, a figure that may not be enough based on recent qualification trends.Three of the four teams to reach the WTC final across the last two cycles had a PCT of more than 65, with India’s 58.8 in the 2023 cycle the lone exception. Both finalists in 2025 finished above 67.The calculations also assume India do not lose any points through over-rate penalties.For now, India remain well placed in the Test after Manav Suthar and Saransh Jain struck regularly in the final session. But with Sri Lanka still fighting and rain already interrupting play, a result remains crucial not just for the series but for India’s increasingly tight road to the WTC final.
